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PRJ-4564 | TESLA-Cascadia: Stochastic Total Water Level and Chronic Coastal Hazard Proxy Simulations
PI
Project TypeSimulation
Natural Hazard Type(s)Other, Flood
Awards
Envisioning a Resilient Oregon Coast: Co-developing alternative futures for adaptation planning and decision-making | NA18OAR170072 (CDFA 11.417) | Oregon Sea Grant
Cascadia Coastline and Peoples Hazards Research Hub | 2103713 | NSF
Optimizing the ecosystem services of US Pacific Northwest coastal beaches and dunes through adaptation planning | NA19NOS4780180 | NOS/NCCOS/CRP
KeywordsFlooding, Erosion, Total Water Levels, Stochastic Coastal Hazards, Regional Scale Chronic Coastal Hazards, Exposure Assessment, Cascadia Coast, Cascadia CoPes Hub, Oregon, Washington, California, Climate Change, Sea Level Rise
Version
2
|
Description:

This project uses the stochastic climate emulator, TESLA (Anderson et al., 2019) to simulate probabilistic total water level drivers for the Cascadia Region (Northern Washington to Northern California), USA for 2020-2100 under three sea level rise scenarios (Sweet et al., 2022). Total water levels (TWLs) were calculated at 100m resolution on all outer coast beaches. Three proxies for hazard impacts (unsafe beach, erosion, and flooding) were calculated based on TWL elevation and lidar-extracted beach morphologic features (slope, backshore feature toe elevation, backshore feature crest elevation). Probabilistic TWLs generated from this project can be used as inputs to several coastal models (e.g., ecomorphodynamic models, flood models, and land use change models). The hazard proxy data provides a first-cut assessment of climate change-induced coastal hazards. This dataset is intended for use by both academics and management specialists. Version 2 of this dataset implemented a simple bias correction to address negative bias in simulated wave heights, as well as a bug fix for beach width calculations which affected runup calculations at some transects and beach safety impacts at all transects.

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Data Depot | DesignSafe-CI